Friday & Saturday’s games shuffled the deck a bit, but I didn’t see any of the 9 teams battling for a playoff spot secure their spot or get eliminated. Miami’s loss to Chicago pushed them to the very edge, but New England and Columbus dropping points kept their chances on life support. To the west, Seattle and Portland both won while The Galaxy, Minnesota and RSL all dropped points. That tightens things significantly; it may be a while before we know anything new over there.
The East
IN (4): Philly, Montreal, NYCFC, RBNY
BATTLING (3 spots): Orlando, Columbus, New England, Cincy, Miami
OUT: Toronto, Atlanta, Charlotte, DC, Chicago
Home PPG: 1.63
Away PPG: 1.11
4th: 51 points
7th: 49 points
New this week, I’m showing all possible points with gray boxes. This drives home a few things, one being that you can’t land on 2 points in 1 game, 5 points in 2 games or 8 points in 3 games. We’re getting down to the final few points and each one matters bigly. Philly & the NY teams do not play midweek, so all teams in the East will have played either 31 or 32 games by Sunday night. No more 2-games-in-hand for anyone.
If Columbus wins in Fort Lauderdale, I think that’s Murder, She Wrote for the Herons. They have a couple road games after this one, and Miami is just bad on the road. They need every home point possible to stay alive.
The Revolution, one spot above them, are looking at a rough couple games. Tuesday night, they go to Houston on short rest. While it’s normally an oven in PNC Stadium, the weather robots tell me it could be comfortable at gametime. I don’t believe them. New England then has to host Montreal on Saturday night. Two losses would knock them out of contention.
Above the playoff line, Orlando has two home games this week against teams I consider out of the race. Anything less than 4 points will be a disappointment for them; 6 would give them the “- x”. Columbus and Cincinnati are not in positions to clinch or drop out this week, but with two losses The Crew could have a maximum of only 50 points with RBNY at home and two road games remaining.
Obviously, NYCFC are still nose-diving. I see them still making the playoffs, but possibly not hosting at any of their rotational home locations.
No key games section anymore; they’re all pretty yuge. See the schedule at the bottom of the article for specifics.
The West
IN (5): LAFC, Austin, Minnesota, Dallas, Nashville
BATTLING (2 spots): RSL, Galaxy, Portland
BARELY STILL KICKING: Seattle
OUT: Kansas City, Houston, San Jose, Colorado, Vancouver
Home PPG: 1.77
Away PPG: 0.98
4th: 53 points
7th: 47 points
Portland has won four straight, but I don’t see that streak continuing in Columbus on Sunday. In fact, I see Portland getting only 1 point in their last games, which is why I don’t have them in the playoffs yet. Their Decision Day match in Sandy, UT could easily decide the final playoff spot in the west.
Speaking of RSL, they have games two and three of a 3-in-8 coming up Wednesday and Saturday, and both are challenging. While Austin is coming back down to Earth a bit, I still see them winning Wednesday and being #2 in the West. Then RSL hosts a team that put up 6 last Saturday in Cincy. Two wins would qualify Salt Lake, but even with two losses I wouldn’t count them out yet. I think if they can get 5 more points this season, they’re in.
I’ve been bullish on The Galaxy for a while, and this week is one of the biggest reasons. Two good results against teams I consider out of the playoffs could put LA above the line for good. Vancouver has lost three in a row, and Colorado will be traveling to Carson on short rest (as will be LA, to be fair).
With Seattle crushing Austin on Saturday, we have to keep an eye on them for another couple weeks. I see The Sounders and Galaxy making a strong push and the final spots in the west not being decided until Decision Day.
12 of the 23 games this week involve teams fighting for the playoffs, although Miami might be written off by Sunday. Here’s the whole thingy: